Meme Weaver

Here’s a website with some cool videos that show you the limits of your perception, or maybe open up your perception.

Quirkology

Here is one of the videos. The colour changing card trick.

Nicholas Taleb, the author of Fooled by Randomness and Black Swan appeared on the topical news programme News Night recently.

His comments on the show are collected in the video below.

Although Taleb doesn’t necessarily articulate his ideas well it does give a good example of why I tend to allow myself to get mildly annoyed anytime I hear someone on television talk about the ‘credit crunch’ or the recession. For the past year I’ve been astonished and surprised, not by the fact that western economies were built like a house of cards on the back of the idea that house prices could only ever go up, but by the fact that 99% of experts and journalists are surprised by this. The only reason I go to mainstream sources is to get an idea of what the masses are thinking. But I’m truly astonished by the lack of intelligence among politicians, economists and journalists.

It is still not really acknowledged that house prices were a big bubble fuelled by too much cheap credit (caused by low interest rates). Everyone seems to think that we need to get thing back to normal, which in their definition is interest rates of 3% and 125% mortgages. Until they get their head around the real cause of this mess, low interest rates and too much debt, they will find themselves continually surprised over the next few years by the continuing downward spiral.

The above video shows what he have to work with though. Every time Nicholas Taleb explains that we can’t predict the future and that we have to protect ourselves to potential devastating downsides the presenter asks: ‘So what do you think will happen in the future?’ Nicholas can’t help but roll his eyes… are they not listening or just to stupid to understand.

Anyone who thinks people will learn from this latests bout of irrational exhuberance has more confidence in humanity than I do at the moment.

Just take a look at this article from Bloomberg: Stress in Global Markets Is a `Black Swan Event’

Ok, it’s a black Swan Event… how can you then try to calculate the probability of it happening!?!

Here’s a test to see how far along the spiral you are.

The Spiraling Upwards Test

Here’s my result:

Stage 7 – The Great Explorer

Look out world, here you come!

So many places to go, people to see, and ideas to investigate! There’s a whole world out there and you’re itching to learn all about it. Have a hell of a good time while you’re out there wandering about! You’re about to meet some amazing individuals, and have lots of fun with them, I bet…

This level would be considered Spiral Dynamics’ and Ken Wilber’s Green stage of development.

On Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, this is the the Aesthetic needs stage.

This is Stage 7 – Diversity in The Wise Turtle’s Spiral Growth theory of development.

I noticed an article about the placebo effect in New Scientist recently. Today I found an article about the phenomenon in the Guardian and apparently there’s been a programme about it on BBC Radio 4 as well.

Four weeks later the researchers measured everything again. The group who had been tutored about the health benefits of their work now perceived that they did more exercise than before – unsurprisingly – while the group who were left alone didn’t change. Neither group had changed their actual levels of activity.But amazingly, despite no change in actual exercise levels, in the intervention group, simply being told about the value of what they were already doing caused a significant change for the better on every single one of the objective health measures recorded: weight, body fat, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio and blood pressure.

Read the rest here: Healthy mind, healthy body

Here’s a blog post with links so that you can listen to the show online. My Placebo programme on BBC Radio4

Scientists are exploring the use of psychedelic drugs such as LSD to treat a range of ailments from depression to cluster headaches and obsessive compulsive disorder.

Interesting to see the mainstream research into hallucinogenic drugs starting again. LSD is said to be really useful for treating depression and alcoholism. I’d always prefer to go down a route that uses our bodies own capacity to create feel good substances (endorphins etc.) but don’t think it should be illegal for people to alter their consciousness in any way they want to.

It’s always funny to see people relying so much on substances to change their mood. For example caffeine and alcohol in the combination of Vodka – RedBull (RedBull is a brand of ‘energy’ drink based on
sugar and caffeine amongst other things).

It’s a popular drink in clubs and pubs. I guess the alcohol is there to lower your inhibitions and the caffeine and sugar to get you to feel energised and happy.

In my opinion the same effect can be reached by jumping up and down for a couple of seconds or dancing. And that’s usually how I do it when I go out.

Read the article at the Guardian: Clinical trials test potential of hallucinogenic drugs to help patients with terminal illnesses

I can’t explain it any better than this.

Lance Armstrong motivates Vince Vaughn in the film Dodgeball by invoking negative emotions that Vince feels a compulsion to move away from. Or maybe it’s just silly and funny.

Now this is actually a technique that some people use to get themselves moving in the direction they want to. It seems that for many people the lure of something better isn’t actually enough to get them taking action. In this case really imagining what they don’t want (broadly defined as pain) can give them the initial spur to move towards what they do want (broadly defined as pleasure).

Be careful however as this way of motivation has two problems. The first is that you need something compelling to move towards otherwise you will only move forward until you are no longer feeling pain, then you fall back into your old habits and don’t take action again until you’re experiencing pain again. (This is the classic pattern of the yo-yo dieter. Diet until you are thin, no pain from being overweight, start eating again, feel pain, start diet again, etc.)

The second issue with this way of motivating yourself is that it’s not a good thing to focus on things you don’t want as that’s inevitably what you’ll end up with. So use this sparingly!

My friend Magnus (creator of Tapping.com) has created an EFT Practitioner Directory, judging by his other popular web sites it will soon be the best place to find an EFT Practitioner in your area.

EFT Practitioner Directory

My apologies for continually harping on about money and economic matters, but the reason why the western economies are in such as mess is down in part to confused ideas about money and wealth. A good example is the terms we use to describe certain kinds of money or ways that money or wealth are represented.

For example; why is it that credit cards (credit has positive connotations if you look it up in a dictionary) actually put you in debt to the bank? While debit cards (with which you can pay with your own money) actually use your own credit.

Even from the banks point of view, using a credit card leaves you indebted to them while using your debit card allows you to use the credit that you have stored with them.

And does owning a large amount of mortgages mean you have accumulated many assets (yes, if you keep collecting interest) or a liability (when people start to default on their mortgages).

So when you buy a house, have you invested in property as an asset (when house prices increase), or have you taken on a liability (maintenance, bills and increasing cost of mortgage repayments)?

The answers aren’t black and white, it’s up to you to make up your mind depending on the circumstances. It’s just more evidence that you have to question the prevailing ways of describing the world.

To explain: black swans were discovered in Australia. Before that, any reasonable person could assume the all-swans-are-white theory was unassailable. But the sight of just one black swan detonated that theory. Every theory we have about the human world and about the future is vulnerable to the black swan, the unexpected event. We sail in fragile vessels across a raging sea of uncertainty. “The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.”

Shit happens, we just don’t know how and when? Everyone know this right? Well everyone except the experts that work in banks such Bear Stearns, Bradford and Bingley and Northern Rock. They predicated a lot of their investments on the idea that they could calculate the risks in the market and the world at large.

It seems blindingly obvious that humans are imperfect and that any models we will come up with are imperfect as well. So why bet he whole house (or should I say other peoples houses) relying on your imperfect models. I guess if your greedy and stupid you would. So they did, hence the credit crunch, house price crash, recession and who knows even a full scale depression.

The philosopher / trader Nass Nicholas Taleb (together with every 19 year old philosophy undergraduate) understood this and he has written a book about our human falibility when it comes to predicting the future called the Black Swan. It’s named on the fact that people used to use the image of a black swan as a metaphor for the impossible (there are black swans in Australia).

The Times Online has an interview with Taleb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom